Olddog--
Though I can't say I blame you in your frustration of these line movements, I also implore you, not out of the egotist sense, but out of the gambler-to-gambler sense, to look at some of the stats based off of these games before taking the three large dogs. I'll tell you that these lines that are set now are closer to the lines I had set before they opened, though Georgia and Las Vegas are now inflated a couple points.
Though the AFL preaches "parody," the bottom 4 teams in the AFL really are a step below the rest, especially on the road. Check out the games from this year and years past with these really bad teams away from home... some of the real ugly games from this year and last year...
Grand Rapids
Colorado 72 - Grand Rapids 56
Columbus 59 - Grand Rapids 28
Colorado 69 - Grand Rapids 30
San Jose 62 - Grand Rapids 31
Chicago 50 - Grand Rapids 30
Rampage are 7-13 ATS their last 20 and 4-5 ATS in their last 9 road games. Though not too shabby ATS on the road, two covers were against now defunct Detroit, one of which was on the 2nd to last game of the season in a meaningless game for both teams. They also covered now defunct Indiana, another non-playoff contending team. They covered Dallas last year, but the spread was 20... another non-playoff team. Also of note is that they were a 27 point dog to San Jose... and didn't cover... This makes the Rampage 0-4 ATS against the playoff teams from last year and 0-1 against probable playoff teams this year.
Austin
Tampa 62 - Austin 45
New Orleans 38 - Austin 21
Georgia 51 - Austin 34
LA 81 - Austin 70
Austin surprised some teams out of the gate last year on the road, including Orlando in a game that absolutely shocked the Preds. But as the season wore on... less impressive. Austin is 7-12-1 ATS in their last 20 and 3-6 ATS on the road in their last 9. Their covers in that stretch? Grand Rapids this year for starters... Grand Rapids last year... and Detroit... again, now defunct. 0-5 against last year's contenders ATS away and 0-1 this year.
Columbus
We won't mention they just lost by 9 to Grand Rapids away...
Las Vegas 64 - Columbus 51
New Orleans 64 - Columbus 46
New York 62 - Columbus 41
Arizona 65 - Columbus 42
Philly 56 - Columbus 34
Columbus hasn't been the worst of cover teams lately... 10-10 in their last 20. On the road though? 4-6 ATS. Let's check who the covers were against. Dallas this year was an impressive cover. I'll give them that. Dallas last year though? Not impressive at all. They covered Indiana. And they covered Detroit last year for shits and giggles.
If this proves anything, it's that these teams don't even come close to covering these numbers against good teams, of which Vegas, Tampa, and Georgia all are. They aren't necessarily Arena Bowl teams, but they're all going to be right there in the playoff chase come year's end, and they should all take care of business, even by these numbers, this week. Maybe this is the week that the stat changes... but I just don't see it happening.
Tampa has played Grand Rapids 5 times in their history. Though each year is different, all of the Tampa teams have been good, and the Grand Rapids teams excluding '01 when they won the Arena Bowl were all pretty bad, particularly the past 2 seasons. Tampa is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in these 5 games, with the last three ATS going to Tampa.
These other two games don't have the comparison, though Columbus and Austin have both been bad in their histories, Vegas and Georgia haven't always been anything to write home about.
Just consider these things. The odds from history are massively stacked against the big dog road teams this week (the exception possibly being Nashville, as I don't know whether to classify Chicago as a contender or pretender yet). I know it's all a new season and all of that... but Tampa's coming off of a loss going into a tough stretch of games, and Georgia is off of a close game with a tough stretch for them. Same true for Vegas, though their path here has been a bit easier than the rest. The point is that these teams need to bank wins now and will take no chances in their games. Though I can see these teams "backdoor"ing us, the odds are all in our favors.
Hope this helps. I'll post a copy of this in my thread as well.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Though I can't say I blame you in your frustration of these line movements, I also implore you, not out of the egotist sense, but out of the gambler-to-gambler sense, to look at some of the stats based off of these games before taking the three large dogs. I'll tell you that these lines that are set now are closer to the lines I had set before they opened, though Georgia and Las Vegas are now inflated a couple points.
Though the AFL preaches "parody," the bottom 4 teams in the AFL really are a step below the rest, especially on the road. Check out the games from this year and years past with these really bad teams away from home... some of the real ugly games from this year and last year...
Grand Rapids
Colorado 72 - Grand Rapids 56
Columbus 59 - Grand Rapids 28
Colorado 69 - Grand Rapids 30
San Jose 62 - Grand Rapids 31
Chicago 50 - Grand Rapids 30
Rampage are 7-13 ATS their last 20 and 4-5 ATS in their last 9 road games. Though not too shabby ATS on the road, two covers were against now defunct Detroit, one of which was on the 2nd to last game of the season in a meaningless game for both teams. They also covered now defunct Indiana, another non-playoff contending team. They covered Dallas last year, but the spread was 20... another non-playoff team. Also of note is that they were a 27 point dog to San Jose... and didn't cover... This makes the Rampage 0-4 ATS against the playoff teams from last year and 0-1 against probable playoff teams this year.
Austin
Tampa 62 - Austin 45
New Orleans 38 - Austin 21
Georgia 51 - Austin 34
LA 81 - Austin 70
Austin surprised some teams out of the gate last year on the road, including Orlando in a game that absolutely shocked the Preds. But as the season wore on... less impressive. Austin is 7-12-1 ATS in their last 20 and 3-6 ATS on the road in their last 9. Their covers in that stretch? Grand Rapids this year for starters... Grand Rapids last year... and Detroit... again, now defunct. 0-5 against last year's contenders ATS away and 0-1 this year.
Columbus
We won't mention they just lost by 9 to Grand Rapids away...
Las Vegas 64 - Columbus 51
New Orleans 64 - Columbus 46
New York 62 - Columbus 41
Arizona 65 - Columbus 42
Philly 56 - Columbus 34
Columbus hasn't been the worst of cover teams lately... 10-10 in their last 20. On the road though? 4-6 ATS. Let's check who the covers were against. Dallas this year was an impressive cover. I'll give them that. Dallas last year though? Not impressive at all. They covered Indiana. And they covered Detroit last year for shits and giggles.
If this proves anything, it's that these teams don't even come close to covering these numbers against good teams, of which Vegas, Tampa, and Georgia all are. They aren't necessarily Arena Bowl teams, but they're all going to be right there in the playoff chase come year's end, and they should all take care of business, even by these numbers, this week. Maybe this is the week that the stat changes... but I just don't see it happening.
Tampa has played Grand Rapids 5 times in their history. Though each year is different, all of the Tampa teams have been good, and the Grand Rapids teams excluding '01 when they won the Arena Bowl were all pretty bad, particularly the past 2 seasons. Tampa is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in these 5 games, with the last three ATS going to Tampa.
These other two games don't have the comparison, though Columbus and Austin have both been bad in their histories, Vegas and Georgia haven't always been anything to write home about.
Just consider these things. The odds from history are massively stacked against the big dog road teams this week (the exception possibly being Nashville, as I don't know whether to classify Chicago as a contender or pretender yet). I know it's all a new season and all of that... but Tampa's coming off of a loss going into a tough stretch of games, and Georgia is off of a close game with a tough stretch for them. Same true for Vegas, though their path here has been a bit easier than the rest. The point is that these teams need to bank wins now and will take no chances in their games. Though I can see these teams "backdoor"ing us, the odds are all in our favors.
Hope this helps. I'll post a copy of this in my thread as well.
--AFLGuru:toast:
